---
title: "The mistake of starting with headcount reduction when adopting AI — Marsanne Studio AI watch"
description: "An opinion piece criticises the practice of cutting headcount before designing work around AI, citing McKinsey and Gartner figures."
url: "https://marsanne.studio/en/ai-watch/the-mistake-of-starting-with-headcount-reduction-when-adopting-1c5f5e/"
lang: "en"
---

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Opinion · 10 October 2026

# The mistake of starting with headcount reduction when adopting AI

Original title, in Spanish: “El error de empezar la IA por la reducción de plantilla”

**Publication**

Cinco Días (Spain)

**Author**

Max Meinke

**Published on**

10 October 2026 · read in the page structured data

## Summary

This opinion piece warns against the mistake of starting AI transformation by first deciding to cut headcount. According to a global McKinsey survey, 32% of respondents in 2025 expected AI-related headcount reductions within the year, but only 14% saw them happen; expectations are nonetheless back up at 39% for the next 12 months. The same survey shows that 80% see an individual productivity gain, against only 37% who see a positive impact on operating profit. Gartner estimates that 30% of employees laid off to be replaced by AI will have to be rehired by 2029, sometimes at a higher cost. The author recommends designing work with AI first, then deriving staffing needs from it, rather than the reverse.

Summary based on the full text of the article.

[Read the article on Cinco Días →](https://cincodias.elpais.com/opinion/2026-10-10/el-error-de-empezar-la-ia-por-la-reduccion-de-plantilla.html)

## Figures cited

-   32 %
    
    Share of respondents expecting AI to reduce their organisation's headcount in the following year (2025)
    
    McKinsey global survey, 2025
    
    > « En 2025, el 32% de los participantes en una encuesta global de McKinsey esperaba que la IA redujera la plantilla de su organización durante el año siguiente. »
    
    Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
    
-   14 %
    
    Share of respondents stating a year later that the headcount reduction had actually happened
    
    McKinsey global survey
    
    > « Un año después, solo el 14% afirmó que esa reducción se había producido. »
    
    Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
    
-   39 %
    
    Share of respondents anticipating AI-related headcount reductions in the next 12 months
    
    McKinsey global survey
    
    > « Aun así, las expectativas vuelven a crecer: el 39% anticipa recortes durante los próximos 12 meses. »
    
    Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
    
-   80 %
    
    Share of respondents stating that AI has improved their individual productivity
    
    McKinsey global survey
    
    > « El 80% de los encuestados afirma que la IA ha mejorado su productividad individual »
    
    Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
    
-   37 %
    
    Share of respondents attributing a positive impact of AI on their organisation's operating profit
    
    McKinsey global survey
    
    > « pero solo el 37% atribuye algún impacto positivo en el resultado operativo de su organización. »
    
    Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
    
-   30 %
    
    Share of employees laid off to be replaced by AI who will have to be rehired by 2029, according to Gartner forecasts
    
    Global forecast to 2029
    
    > « Gartner estima que, para 2029, el 30% de los empleados despedidos por sustitución mediante IA tendrán que ser recontratados, en algunos casos a mayor coste. »
    
    Source: Gartner
    

## Classification

**Country**

Worldwide scope

**Company size**

All sizes

**Industries**

All industries, or industry not specified

**Companies**

Gartner (study author), McKinsey (study author)

**Keywords**

headcount reduction, productivity, return on investment, AI agents, work transformation, team management

Entry written by Marsanne Studio from the cited article, with the help of an AI model (claude-sonnet-5). The rights to the article and its illustrations belong to Cinco Días and its author. Entry translated from French by Claude Sonnet 5.5.