Data study ·
AI is already starting to leave a mark on Spanish unemployment. The most exposed: programmers and designers
Original title, in Spanish: “La IA ya empieza a dejar huella en el paro español. Los más expuestos: programadores y diseñadores”
- Publication
- Xataka (Spain)
- Author
- Rubén Andrés
- Published on
- 29 October 2026 · read in the page structured data
Summary
A study by the Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB), comparing 502 occupations using SEPE data between January 2021 and March 2026, shows that unemployment is rising slightly in the occupations most exposed to AI in Spain: +1.2% per ten points of exposure in the 25 months following the launch of ChatGPT, then +1.7% afterwards. Programmers are the most exposed, with 75% of their tasks already covered by AI according to Anthropic's method, followed by data entry clerks, sales agents, financial analysts and designers. The researchers describe an accumulation of registered unemployment, without a fall in hiring. A Stanford study shows that employment of 22-25 year-olds in these occupations is 19% lower than expected, with Anthropic having reduced the share of juniors in its technical hiring from 27% to 9% between early 2025 and June 2026. In Spain, unemployment is rising mostly among 30-39 year-olds (+3.4%).
Summary based on the full text of the article.
Read the article on Xataka →Figures cited
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1.2 %
Rise in unemployment per occupation for 10 points of AI exposure, in the 25 months after the launch of ChatGPT
Spain, 502 occupations, SEPE data January 2021-March 2026, period from late 2022 to early 2025
« Por cada diez puntos adicionales de exposición a la IA, el paro de cada profesión subió un 1,2% en los 25 meses tras el lanzamiento de ChatGPT a finales de 2022. »
Source: Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
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1.7 %
Rise in unemployment per occupation for 10 points of AI exposure, beyond this initial period
Spain, more recent period with greater AI presence in businesses
« Más allá de ese periodo, con la IA más presente en las empresas, el porcentaje de paro por cada diez puntos de exposición se incrementa hasta el 1,7%. »
Source: Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
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75 %
Share of programmers' tasks already covered by AI
Measure based on actual use of Claude by occupation (Anthropic method)
« Los programadores encabezan la lista de profesiones más expuestas a la automatización de tareas con IA, con un 75% de sus tareas ya cubiertas. »
Source: Anthropic
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-19 %
Employment gap for 22-25 year-olds in AI-exposed occupations, compared with the expected level
22-25 year-olds, AI-exposed occupations
« Investigadores de Stanford descubrieron que el empleo de los jóvenes de entre 22 y 25 años en ocupaciones expuestas a la IA está un 19% por debajo de lo esperado. »
Source: Université de Stanford
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27 %
Share of junior profiles in Anthropic's technical hiring, early 2025
Anthropic, technical hiring, early 2025
« los perfiles junior pasaron del 27% al 9% de sus contrataciones técnicas entre principios de 2025 y junio de 2026. »
Source: Anthropic
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9 %
Share of junior profiles in Anthropic's technical hiring, June 2026
Anthropic, technical hiring, June 2026
« los perfiles junior pasaron del 27% al 9% de sus contrataciones técnicas entre principios de 2025 y junio de 2026. »
Source: Anthropic
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3.4 %
Rise in unemployment for 30-39 year-olds per 10 points of AI exposure, in the latest period measured
Spain, employees aged 30 to 39
« el paro sube más entre los empleados de 30 a 39 años, hasta un 3,4% por cada diez puntos en el último tramo. »
Source: Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
Classification
- Country
- Spain, United States
- Company size
- All sizes
- Industries
- Software vendors, IT services companies, telecoms · Banking, insurance, asset management, finance departments · All industries, or industry not specified
- Companies
- Universidad de Barcelona (study author), Fedea (study author), BBVA Research (study author), Anthropic (cited), Universidad de Stanford (study author), Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) (study author)
- Keywords
- unemployment, ai exposure, programmers, youth employment, spain, junior hiring
Entry written by Marsanne Studio from the cited article, with the help of an AI model (claude-sonnet-5). The rights to the article and its illustrations belong to Xataka and its author. Entry translated from French by Claude Sonnet 5.5.