Analysis ·
AI promised to boost business productivity. Today, GDP tells a very different story
Original title, in Spanish: “La IA ha prometido disparar la productividad de las empresas. A día de hoy el PIB cuenta una historia bastante distinta”
- Publication
- Xataka (Spain)
- Author
- Carlos Prego
- Published on
- 27 September 2026 · read in the page structured data · updated on 28 September 2026
Summary
The article examines the gap between the promises of generative AI for productivity and GDP, and the actual macroeconomic data. The OECD forecasts moderate global growth (2.9% then 3%) with no AI-driven break. In the United States, despite massive investment in data centres, GDP growth remains modest (2.2%) and total factor productivity has risen by only 0.07% over four quarters, according to the St. Louis Fed, which analysed 490,000 earnings calls of listed companies. Barclays considers AI adoption to be "gradual" rather than disruptive. The World Economic Forum reports that 97% of experts expect AI adoption to keep growing, but 61% doubt that it will create significant numbers of jobs. The article compares this situation to the Solow paradox observed during the computerisation of the 1990s.
Summary based on the full text of the article.
Read the article on Xataka →Figures cited
-
3 %
Forecast global GDP growth in 2026
Global, OECD forecast
« la OCDE prevé un crecimiento del PIB mundial del 2,9% este año y del 3% en 2026 »
Source: OCDE
-
40 %
Share of US GDP substantially affected by generative AI
United States
« hay analistas que estiman que alrededor del 40% de su PIB se verá "sustancialmente afectado" por el desarrollo de la IA generativa »
-
2.2 %
Forecast annual US GDP growth in 2026
United States, OECD forecast
« la OCDE pronostica que el crecimiento anual del PIB en EEUU será del 2,2% este año y 2,1% en 2027 »
Source: OCDE
-
0.07 %
AI-related adjusted total factor productivity growth
United States, four quarters to Q1 2026
« la productividad total de los factores ajustada por utilización creció solo un 0,07% durante los cuatro trimestres que terminaron con el primer trimestre de 2026 »
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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30 %
Potential productivity gain from generative AI estimated by the OECD
Global, average according to OECD study
« el uso de la IA generativa puede incrementar la productividad un 30% »
Source: OCDE
-
97 %
Share of experts who think AI adoption will continue to grow
World Economic Forum survey
« el 97% cree que la adopción de la IA seguirá aumentando »
Source: Foro Económico Mundial
-
61 %
Share of experts who think AI will not create significant numbers of jobs
World Economic Forum survey
« el 61% cree que la IA no generará empleo de forma significativa »
Source: Foro Económico Mundial
Classification
- Country
- Spain, United States
- Company size
- All sizes
- Industries
- All industries, or industry not specified
- Companies
- Foro Económico Mundial (study author), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (study author), Shopify (cited), OCDE (study author), Barclays (cited), Goldman Sachs (cited)
- Keywords
- productivity, GDP, AI adoption, macroeconomics, Solow paradox, OECD
Entry written by Marsanne Studio from the cited article, with the help of an AI model (claude-sonnet-5). The rights to the article and its illustrations belong to Xataka and its author. Entry translated from French by Claude Sonnet 5.5.