Opinion ·
The mistake of starting with headcount reduction when adopting AI
Original title, in Spanish: “El error de empezar la IA por la reducción de plantilla”
- Publication
- Cinco Días (Spain)
- Author
- Max Meinke
- Published on
- 10 October 2026 · read in the page structured data
Summary
This opinion piece warns against the mistake of starting AI transformation by first deciding to cut headcount. According to a global McKinsey survey, 32% of respondents in 2025 expected AI-related headcount reductions within the year, but only 14% saw them happen; expectations are nonetheless back up at 39% for the next 12 months. The same survey shows that 80% see an individual productivity gain, against only 37% who see a positive impact on operating profit. Gartner estimates that 30% of employees laid off to be replaced by AI will have to be rehired by 2029, sometimes at a higher cost. The author recommends designing work with AI first, then deriving staffing needs from it, rather than the reverse.
Summary based on the full text of the article.
Read the article on Cinco Días →Figures cited
-
32 %
Share of respondents expecting AI to reduce their organisation's headcount in the following year (2025)
McKinsey global survey, 2025
« En 2025, el 32% de los participantes en una encuesta global de McKinsey esperaba que la IA redujera la plantilla de su organización durante el año siguiente. »
Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
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14 %
Share of respondents stating a year later that the headcount reduction had actually happened
McKinsey global survey
« Un año después, solo el 14% afirmó que esa reducción se había producido. »
Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
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39 %
Share of respondents anticipating AI-related headcount reductions in the next 12 months
McKinsey global survey
« Aun así, las expectativas vuelven a crecer: el 39% anticipa recortes durante los próximos 12 meses. »
Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
-
80 %
Share of respondents stating that AI has improved their individual productivity
McKinsey global survey
« El 80% de los encuestados afirma que la IA ha mejorado su productividad individual »
Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
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37 %
Share of respondents attributing a positive impact of AI on their organisation's operating profit
McKinsey global survey
« pero solo el 37% atribuye algún impacto positivo en el resultado operativo de su organización. »
Source: McKinsey (enquête mondiale)
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30 %
Share of employees laid off to be replaced by AI who will have to be rehired by 2029, according to Gartner forecasts
Global forecast to 2029
« Gartner estima que, para 2029, el 30% de los empleados despedidos por sustitución mediante IA tendrán que ser recontratados, en algunos casos a mayor coste. »
Source: Gartner
Classification
- Country
- Worldwide scope
- Company size
- All sizes
- Industries
- All industries, or industry not specified
- Companies
- Gartner (study author), McKinsey (study author)
- Keywords
- headcount reduction, productivity, return on investment, AI agents, work transformation, team management
Entry written by Marsanne Studio from the cited article, with the help of an AI model (claude-sonnet-5). The rights to the article and its illustrations belong to Cinco Días and its author. Entry translated from French by Claude Sonnet 5.5.